The Small Business Advocate's 2005 Predictions

Jim Blasingame, the Small Business Advocate, has issued his list of Top Predictions for 2005 in his newsletter (free subscription required). There are a large number of predictions -- 18 to be exact -- but I'll highlight just a few of the most universally relevant predictions:

• 2005 Prediction: China will resist pressure from the U.S. to allow its currency, the yuan, to float, instead of being pegged to the dollar. Due to its poorly operated credit sector, China considers its growing economy too fragile for the yuan to float.





• 2005 Prediction: The European Union's economic growth rate will be less than 2.2%. Saddled with systemic socialistic business practices, the EU is struggling to be competitive in the 21st century's global marketplace.





• 2005 Prediction: The U.S. economy will grow at an annual rate of over 4%.





• 2005 Prediction: The annual unemployment rate will end the year below 5%.





• 2005 Prediction: The United States will continue to lead the world in promoting entrepreneurship, but also watch the new entries into the European Union, like Poland, plus India, and yes, China.

Editor's Note: This is the ninth in our series of articles on 2005 trends predictions. We are comparing and contrasting trends predictions from different sources that will impact the small business market in 2005 and beyond. Here is our running list of trend prediction posts:

Anti-Trending and Other Trends for 2005

Entrepreneur's Top Trends for 2005

Small Business is Itself a Trend

Top Technology Trends for 2005

Top Global Consumer Trends

Inc.'s Trends for Entrepreneurs in 2005

Top Travel Trends for 2005

More Top Trends for 2005

PowerBlog Review: Binza

Editor's note: As we start another year, we are excited to present the forty-sixth in our regular weekly series of PowerBlog Reviews of other weblogs.



We enjoy reviewing blogs that are being put to unusual purposes, and Binza is one of them.



This blog is an interesting example of using a blog as a working tool, to practice writing and to hone the author's writing skills. Chris Bowcutt is that author.



Chris is a professional writer, and has a freelance copywriting site called Binza Group. He uses the blog as one of several methods to promote his writing. He also uses the blog to practice something he calls his hobby -- speechwriting:

"Speechwriting is not a business but a side hobby of mine. One of my goals is to eventually write speeches for high-level people -- but I've yet to build that business! So I write and deliver speeches for fun in my Toastmasters club (a public speaking club). I write mainly to educate and inspire.



The blog has been excellent in helping me hone my writing skills and also to feel more comfortable expressing myself."

The blog sidebar lists several speeches Chris has created (when was the last time you saw speeches listed on a blog sidebar?). One of those, entitled "Responsibility," speaks of the need for people to take individual responsibility for themselves. In addition to having meaning for him, Chris says this speech has resonated the most with audiences.



Unlike a lot of business blogs, Binza doesn't try to maintain a niche focus. Chris writes about anything that interests him, all the while practicing his writing. After all, it's the act of writing that is important to Chris.



Binza has a long history -- long for a weblog, that is. Chris was in the World Trade Center on that fateful day on September 11, 2001. He had started the blog a week before that.



Something unstudied and spontaneous in this blog makes you want to keep reading it. Few of the topics are about business subjects. But the business purpose of the site is there and it stands out.



That said, Chris sees future opportunity in helping others with their blogs, noting "the more I blog and the more I see its value in the marketplace the more likely it is I'll be incorporating 'blog consulting' into my freelance work."



Chris blogs from New York. The name of his blog, Binza, is the name of the neighborhood he lived in from 1984-1989, in Kinshasa, Zaire, (now DR Congo), for which Chris has fond memories. The graphic in the blog header is the (now obsolete) Zairean flag.



The Power: The Power of the Binza blog is in the way it is being used expressly to develop the author's writing skills. Blogs have been described as online diaries, and as such are perfect for this purpose. Unlike the diaries of old -- private items on paper -- the author can point propsective clients to the blog to view his writing samples.

Blogging a Fast Growing Trend

Readership of blogs and RSS news feeds in the United States is growing rapidly, according to a hot-off-the-presses study. I predict that blogs and RSS will continue to be hot Internet trends in 2005.



The just-released Pew Internet and American Life survey profiles this astonishingly fast growth. The survey was conducted in November of 2004, and the following quotes from the survey summarize the results:

• 7% of the 120 million U.S. adults who use the internet say they have created a blog or web-based diary. That represents more than 8 million people.





• 27% of internet users say they read blogs, a 58% jump from the 17% who told us they were blog readers in February. This means that by the end of 2004 32 million Americans were blog readers.





• 5% of internet users say they use RSS aggregators to get the news and other information delivered from blogs. This is a first-time measurement ... and is an indicator that this application is gaining an impressive foothold.





• The interactive features of many blogs are also catching on: 12% of internet users have posted comments or other material on blogs.





• At the same time, for all the excitement about blogs and the media coverage of them, blogs have not yet become recognized by a majority of internet users. Only 38% of all internet users know what a blog is. The rest are not sure what the term "blog" means.

By now anyone reading blogs knows they are becoming more popular by the day. What's so surprising about this report, to me, is just how popular they are becoming so quickly. They're like a juggernaut.



The data about RSS feeds is what I expected, also. RSS is the future of how readers will access content-rich websites.



However, only the tech-savvy are using RSS today.



Eventually RSS feeds could replace e-zines and newsletters. But it will be at least two years before significant numbers of people use RSS. Meanwhile, businesses have lots of time to make the transition.

Taking a Small Business Global

Now is a better time than ever for American small businesses to export their products and services. The explosion in low cost communication technology, the growth in online business, and the weak American dollar all combine to make conditions right.



To learn more, head on over to SMB Trendwire to listen to the recorded Conversation with small business expert, Laurel Delaney.



She talks about the nuts and bolts of exporting. And she does it in blunt, down-to-earth style.



Laurel is the CEO of GlobeTrade, with 20 years experience helping U.S. small businesses get started exporting.



I interviewed Laurel and couldn't believe how much detail she packed into a 45-minute recording. You'll find out that a business can be pretty small and still go global successfully. You'll learn that with the Internet and services such as PayPal, even a solo entrepreneur can export services such as Web design. You'll also discover when a small business should NOT consider exporting.



What are you waiting for? Check it out.

More Top Trends for 2005

Kiplinger Forecasts (requires subscription) has just issued its Top Ten Trends for 2005. These trends are applicable to the U.S. economy as a whole, and not necessarily just small business:

1. Higher energy prices - Kiplinger says look for higher gasoline prices by Memorial Day, with prices averaging US$2.15 per gallon.



2. Modest (3.5%) economic growth - Economic growth will be slower than in 2004, but hiring will accelerate.



3. A worsening situation in Iraq The attacks will continue and get worse.



4. A bottom for the dollar by spring The weak U.S. dollar will finally hit bottom in the spring and begin to edge upward.



5. Higher prices, but lower inflation - Inflation will be 2½%, lower than 2004. Prices will rise due to the weak dollar increasing the price of imports.



6. Better stock returns than 2004 - Expect 12%-15% stock returns. Likely strong performers include: Energy, defense and biotechnology plus manufacturers of medical and electrical equipment.



7. An even more contentious U.S. political arena - Due to contention, we are not likely to see tax reform or Social Security reform in 2005. But we may get some liability lawsuit limits and bankruptcy law reform.



8. Employer health costs rising about 10% - Health insurance premiums will rise 10%, which sounds like a lot but is not as bad as some recent years. Health Savings Accounts, high-deductible plans, and consumer-driven plans that emphasize judicous use of health care, will be the main techniques used to control costs.



9. Burgeoning foreign investment BY China - Chinese companies will be snapping up foreign companies. Top targets include electronics, IT, telecom, and raw materials for China's builders and manufacturers.



10. Intense competition for telephone and Internet services - Everything in this category will be getting cheaper. We'll see many new services and new technologies rolled out.

The issue gripping small business the most is number 8, health insurance costs. The U.S. system of employers providing health insurance benefits for their employees, places small businesses at a disadvantage.



Editor's Note: This is the eighth in our series of articles on 2005 trends predictions. We are comparing and contrasting trends predictions from different sources that will impact the small business market in 2005 and beyond. Here is our running list of trend prediction posts:

Anti-Trending and Other Trends for 2005

Entrepreneur's Top Trends for 2005

Small Business is Itself a Trend

Top Technology Trends for 2005

Top Global Consumer Trends

Inc.'s Trends for Entrepreneurs in 2005

Top Travel Trends for 2005